A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
