Just two months prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the reason for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
